The signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 17 June 2026 marks a critical turning point in what has been the defining economic shock of the year. The Strait of Hormuz blockage, which severed a critical energy corridor, drove oil prices sharply higher, eroded household purchasing power, and compressed corporate margins across energy-intensive industries. The deal signals the start of a shift from disruption to stabilisation, even as conditions on the ground confirm that recovery will unfold gradually rather than swiftly. Energy markets are improving, but the second half of 2026 is still likely to be defined by volatility, implementation risk and uneven exposure across economies and industries.
Strait of Hormuz reopening on track with Euromonitor baseline assumptions
Recent developments are broadly in line with Euromonitor's baseline scenario, which assumed the US/Israel-Iran war would remain contained but unresolved through Q2 2026, with Strait of Hormuz disruption persisting through H1 2026 and conditions beginning to improve from Q3 2026 onwards. Brent crude was..........
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