But the hosts – along with close rivals Germany, Canada, Austria and Norway – will have their work cut out to catch the US team. Romania would produce a great surprise if it would win any medal at the Winter Olympics. And unfortunately the cool Jamaican bobsled team don’t even make it into the running.
Table 1: The potential top ten countries based on the number of Olympic medals
|
|
Medal rank |
2014 medals estimate |
2010 medals |
Change |
GDP rank (2013) |
|
US |
1 |
35 |
37 |
-2 |
1 |
|
Germany |
2 |
26 |
30 |
-4 |
5 |
|
Russia |
3 |
25 |
15 |
+10 |
6 |
|
Canada |
4 |
23 |
26 |
-3 |
13 |
|
Austria |
5 |
22 |
16 |
+6 |
37 |
|
Norway |
6 |
21 |
23 |
-2 |
46 |
|
China |
7 |
15 |
11 |
+4 |
2 |
|
Switzerland |
=8 |
10 |
9 |
+1 |
36 |
|
Sweden |
=8 |
10 |
11 |
-1 |
34 |
|
South Korea |
=10 |
9 |
14 |
-5 |
12 |
Once again, economists at PwC have used their skills to project the likely medal tally - this time for the Olympic Winter Games at Sochi starting on February 7th. Their analysis is based on econometric modelling, testing the historic correlation between a range of socio-economic metrics and historic medal success.
The modelling results show that the size of the economy is significant in determining success, with total GDP appearing as a significant variable. However, a large economy is not sufficient on its own for a strong performance. Climate is an important factor, with snow coverage and the number of ski resorts per head having a significant impact on medal shares.
Larger, developed countries with the right climate dominate the top of the projected medals table; but Austria and Norway demonstrate that a smaller economy is not a barrier to success, with a greater estimated medal haul than countries such as China and France.
“While this is a light-hearted analysis, it makes an important point of how organisations can use economic techniques to help make better business decisions. The purpose of our model is not to forecast medal totals with complete accuracy, but rather to improve the forecasting techniques”, stated John Webster, Assurance Leader, PwC Romania.
About the report
A regression analysis was used to produce the results, employing a Tobit model to estimate medal share for the 28 countries which have won at least one medal in the last three Winter Olympics. The other variables were total GDP, ski resorts per head, medal shares in the previous two Winter Olympics, and dummies for countries with a ‘tradition’ of winter sports and for host countries.
For more information on this topic, and to see the latest PwC Global Economy Watch, take a look here: http://www.pwc.co.uk/GEW
|
2014 medal rank estimate |
2014 medals estimate |
2010 medals |
Change |
GDP rank (2013) |
|
|
US |
1 |
35 |
37 |
-2 |
1 |
|
Germany |
2 |
26 |
30 |
-4 |
5 |
|
Russia |
3 |
25 |
15 |
10 |
6 |
|
Canada |
4 |
23 |
26 |
-3 |
13 |
|
Austria |
5 |
22 |
16 |
6 |
37 |
|
Norway |
6 |
21 |
23 |
-2 |
46 |
|
China |
7 |
15 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
|
Switzerland |
=8 |
10 |
9 |
1 |
36 |
|
Sweden |
=8 |
10 |
11 |
-1 |
34 |
|
South Korea |
=10 |
9 |
14 |
-5 |
12 |
|
France |
=10 |
9 |
11 |
-2 |
9 |
|
Italy |
12 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
11 |
|
The Netherlands |
=13 |
6 |
8 |
-2 |
23 |
|
Finland |
=13 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
57 |
|
Japan |
=15 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
4 |
|
Czech Republic |
=15 |
5 |
6 |
-1 |
44 |
|
Poland |
=17 |
4 |
6 |
-2 |
21 |
|
Slovenia |
=17 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
89 |
|
Slovakia |
=19 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
65 |
|
Australia |
=19 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
17 |
|
Croatia |
=21 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
81 |
|
Great Britain |
=21 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
|
Belarus |
=21 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
62 |
|
Latvia |
=21 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
102 |
|
Estonia |
=21 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
108 |
|
Ukraine |
=26 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
41 |
|
Kazakhstan |
=26 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
52 |
|
Bulgaria |
=26 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
71 |
Table 2: The projected medals totals for Sochi 2014
