Romania’s real estate market is closing a year that has largely confirmed the directions anticipated by Collier’s consultants in the “Top 10 Predictions 2025” report. Some of the macroeconomic risks flagged at the beginning of the year - economic slowdown, political instability and weakening external demand - have materialised and negatively affected certain segments. At the same time, other areas, particularly the industrial market, have outperformed expectations and are moving towards a potential record level, reinforcing Romania’s attractiveness for logistics and manufacturing activities.
“As we prepare to launch our now well-established annual outlook on the trends of the coming year, due in around a month, we wanted to assess how closely our forecasts aligned with the actual developments of 2025. Overall, the anticipated direction proved correct, even if the scale of some changes exceeded our initial expectations - for better or for worse. For instance, we had estimated a moderation in economic growth to just over 2%, but it now appears we will end the year closer to 1%. This outcome was influenced by an unstable domestic political context, relatively weak external demand and fiscal adjustment measures - factors we had anticipated from the very beginning of the year”, explains Laurentiu Lazar, Managing Partner of Colliers Romania.
Macro context, geopolitics and infrastructure: the direction was right, the magnitude was different
Some developments were relatively easy to anticipate, such as the volatile geopolitical environment or Romania’s accession to the Schengen Area. However, the real challenge of 2025 was the market’s ability to adapt to rapid and unpredictable changes. Colliers’ forecasts regarding the economy’s vulnerability to external demand, the high fiscal deficit and political instability were confirmed, all of which amplified the economic slowdown. By contrast, infrastructure developments underperformed expectations: the pace of work slowed considerably due to administrative delays and reduced financial resources, largely caused by delays in accessing European funds, marking a significant deviation from the initial scenario.
Offices: uncertainties confirmed and quality differentiation deepened
For the office market, Collier’s consultants anticipated a challenging year - a forecast that largely proved accurate. Economic and political uncertainties, combined with companies’ caution when making long-term decisions, limited new demand and kept transaction volumes at a subdued pace. At the same time, the gap between modern, efficient and well-located buildings and those with outdated technical specifications became increasingly evident, particularly as, in the absence of new deliveries, available space in competitive buildings has become ever scarcer. This polarisation confirms the direction highlighted by Colliers consultants from the very start of the year.
Industrial: results above expectations, with record potential
“In the industrial segment, we were actually more conservative than reality. We expected a slightly more tempered year, albeit still a very strong one, especially compared with the pre-pandemic period, against the backdrop of weaker external demand. In reality, if the pace seen in the first three quarters continued through the final months, 2025 could close at a record level. The higher concentration of transactions in the logistics sector suggests that the year brought to the forefront tenants focused primarily on the Romanian consumer story, which has been very successful in recent years”, explains Silviu Pop, Director ECE & Romania Research at Colliers.
The industrial sector thus continues to stand out as the most dynamic segment of the real estate market, supported by solid demand, activity relocations and strong interest from companies looking to expand in Romania - trends already outlined in the January report.
Retail: around 200,000 sqm of new deliveries, in line with forecasts
The retail market evolved in line with Colliers’ estimates, with approximately 200,000 square metres of new space delivered in 2025, above the average of the past decade. This volume pushed total modern retail stock beyond the 5 million square metre threshold, marking an important milestone in the market’s maturation. Consumption growth, particularly in fashion and footwear, alongside major expansions - such as Mall Moldova Iași - and the reconfiguration of Agora Arad, supported the sector’s positive momentum. At the same time, developers’ interest in retail parks in small and medium-sized cities shows that Romania remains below other regional markets in terms of retail density, pointing to substantial growth potential in the years ahead.
Residential: prices continued to rise, demand remained solid
The residential market developed broadly in line with forecasts, recording stable demand and continued price growth despite high interest rates and a weaker economic backdrop. In major cities, housing prices have increased by 60%-100% over the past six years, making affordable options increasingly scarce in central areas. In Bucharest, the halving of building permits has constrained the supply of new homes and added further pressure on prices. Although access to credit remains challenging and the VAT increase introduced during the summer months has reduced affordability, transaction volumes have remained relatively high, with even increases reported in cities such as Cluj. Rental demand has risen, as more buyers postpone purchases in the hope of a stabilisation in financing conditions. Over the medium term, a potential reduction in interest rates could reignite growth momentum in a market already strained by a structural housing shortage.
Reverse migration of Romanians: the only forecast that missed the mark
The only trend that did not materialise in 2025 was the expected return of Romanians from the diaspora. Data from 2024 show a decline in the number of people re-establishing their residence in Romania, a development most likely influenced by the lower quality of public and administrative services compared with Western countries..
“It is unlikely that the situation will improve in 2025, meaning that only accelerated and consistent reforms could create the conditions for a more substantial return of Romanians from abroad”, Silviu Pop concludes.
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