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Bloomberg: Revolving Romanian Cabinets Spook Investors as Cash Flees

“Romania needs its Dec. 9 election to end a political war that has split the nation’s leaders or face a slide in the currency, bonds and investments, said executives and analysts from Bucharest to London,” state Bloomberg. Within the context of three Government cabinets changed in the last year, FDI plunged to 1.1 billion euros (USD1.4 billion) in the first nine months from a record 9.5 billion euros in 2008 and the leu is hovering near an all-time low.

Bloomberg quotes the some key-figure leaders of large companies and financial institutions operating on local market, as Steven van Groningen, the head of Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI), Mark Mobius, who manages $50 billion in emerging-market debt at Templeton Asset Management, Pedro Carreira, the head of Continental’s factory in the city of Timisoara, Mariana Gheorghe, CEO of OMV Petrom.


All managers and business leaders wotking at the heads of largest multinationals in Romania underline the need for predictability and coherence in the fiscal frame and point to the political segment.  “We need a government that achieves the things it promises to deliver,” said Steven van Groningen, the head of Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI)’s Romanian unit, quoted by Bloomberg as he added:. “The lack of predictability is the most important factor that negatively influences the business climate.” The cost of insuring Romanian debt against non-payment for five years using credit-default swaps rose to 228 points from 206 points on Oct. 17, the lowest in at least two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


“I don’t think the ruling coalition is aware of the dangers it is facing,” said Michael Taylor, a senior analyst at Oxford Analytica in the U.K, quoted by Bloomberg. “This affects foreign investments as companies become very suspicious about being in a country where they don’t know what to expect, he added.


“The fact that this electoral year will be over soon is good news in itself as, hopefully, politicians will leave aside the political strife and will address key priorities,” Mark Mobius, who manages $50 billion in emerging-market debt at Templeton Asset Management, said by e-mail to Bloomberg. In the opinion of Mariana Gheorghe quoted by the newspaper, the next government must also upgrade infrastructure, develop capital markets and improve legislation, according to Mobius and Mariana Gheorghe, who heads OMV Petrom SA (OMV), Romania’s biggest oil company and the largest contributor to the state budget.