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Euler Hermes analysis: 2014, a year of disappointment, disruption and divergence; 2015, characterized by liquidity, demand and politics

While a decline in insolvencies is apparent worldwide, financial pressures and counterparty risks remain, with high variation among different world regions and sectors.

Subdued and volatile macro developments, as well as financing constraints remain a drag on companies’ profitability and cash

 

Global recovery remains fragile, without any big acceleration in sight. World GDP growth expectations have been revised downward for 2015 to +2.9% in real terms (after +2.6% in 2014), standing below +3% for the fourth consecutive year and well under pre-crisis trends, while world trade should only slightly pick up, one percentage point at a time, from +3.7% in 2014 to +4.5% in 2015 (compared to +7.5% average from 2002-2007). Moreover, recovery remains unevenly spread around regions  and countries. The UK and U.S. carry global growth on their shoulders, while having challenges of their own to stand up to: most American companies still prefer issuing dividends and doing share buy backs to investing capital.

 

For complete information, please see the attached report, or the Romanian version of the article, here.

Authors

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EULER HERMES SERVICES ROMANIA SRL