The most serious constraint is the technical limits of the electrical network which, according to Transelectrica’s (Romanian TSO) assessments, are around 3,000 MW of wind power under the present network structure, without reinforcements, respectively around 4,500 MW (optimistic) with reinforcements and supplementary balancing backing. Under these circumstances, I foresee that the 3,000 MW limit will be attained within the next two to three years, considering the approx. 2,200 MW already installed in wind capacities.
As for the further developments in wind, apart from the strictly necessary balancing capacities in pumping-storage and gas fired units, there will be restraints dictated by the limited domestic consumption unless Romania becomes a net exporter of electricity.
The new legislation has a major impact on the wind energy investors. Because of the unpredictability of the legislative modifications most of the ready-to-build projects do not find any client, every investor waiting for the final outcome of the renewable law changes and losing the trust in the stability of the legislative framework. Moreover, some of the major investors are contemplating now the possibility of disinvesting their capacities in Romania and are trying to sell their already operating or pipelined assets. This will have a serious impact on the credibility on the Romanian business environment.
There will be wind
As mentioned before, wind will continue to be the main renewable resource of choice, given the favorable conditions present in Romania, respectively a good wind resource, a rather important network reserve capacity still available and a support scheme still advantageous, despite the cuts envisaged by the law amendments