The Q3 2026 outlook is shaped by two reinforcing shocks: the Strait of Hormuz blockage and a more durable US tariff framework. Rerouting, higher Atlantic Basin supply, coordinated releases of strategic oil reserves, and softer oil demand have contained the energy shock, while new 10-12.5% tariffs on imports from around 60 economies have left US market access more costly and uncertain. Euromonitor International now projects global real GDP growth at 3.0% in 2026, with inflation at 4.9%, keeping central banks cautious and delaying a return to easier financial conditions.
Chart showing Real GDP Growth Euromonitor Baseline Forecast 2025-2027
Advanced economies face uneven pressure from imported energy and tariff uncertainty
Advanced economies remain under pressure from imported energy costs, tariff uncertainty and sticky inflation. The US is more resilient thanks to domestic demand, AI-related investment and...
The article is the property of Euromonitor International, a market intelligence company, and you can find it here.
