Global baseline outlook: Partial global recovery expected in 2021
Global real GDP is expected to contract by 4.7% in 2020 (with a plausible range of 4.2-5.2% decline), followed by 5.1% growth in 2021 (with a plausible range of 3.5-6.5%).The end of 2020 is seeing the emergence of regional second waves especially in Europe and North America. The Eurozone and UK economies have had to resort to new lockdown measures to control fast-rising infection rates. The baseline forecast assumes these second waves are contained in Q4 2020, and widespread vaccine deployment around mid-2021.
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